The mathematics of the reproduction number R for Covid-19: A primer for demographers

dc.creatorRosero Bixby, Luis
dc.creatorMiller, Timothy
dc.date.accessioned2024-08-13T21:32:01Z
dc.date.available2024-08-13T21:32:01Z
dc.date.issued2022
dc.description.abstractThe reproduction number R is a key indicator used to monitor the dynamics of Covid-19 and to assess the e ects of infection control strategies that frequently have high social and economic costs. Despite having an analog in demography’s “net reproduction rate” that has been routinely computed for a century, demographers may not be familiar with the concept and measurement of R in the context of Covid-19. This article is intended to be a primer for understanding and estimating R in demography. We show that R can be estimated as a ratio between the numbers of new cases today divided by the weighted average of cases in previous days. We present two alternative derivations for these weights based on how risks have changed over time: constant vs. exponential decay. We then provide estimates of these weights, and demonstrate their use in calculating R to trace the course of the first pandemic year in 53 countries.en_CR
dc.description.urihttps://www.austriaca.at/0xc1aa5576_0x003d1321.pdf
dc.identifier.issn1728-5305es_CR
dc.identifier.urihttps://repositorio.sibdi.ucr.ac.cr/handle/123456789/22485
dc.language.isoengen_CR
dc.publisherVienna Yearbook of Population Research 20 (online first)en_CR
dc.subjectCOVID-19es_CR
dc.subjectNUMERO REPRODUCTIVOes_CR
dc.subjectMETODOS EN DEMOGRAFIAes_CR
dc.titleThe mathematics of the reproduction number R for Covid-19: A primer for demographersen_CR
dc.typeArticle

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