Luis Rosero Bixby

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La fecundidad en áreas metropolitanas de América Latina: la fecundidad de reemplazo y más allá
(La fecundidad en América Latina: ¿Transición o revolución?, 2004) Rosero Bixby, Luis
Conforme la fecundidad disminuye en América Latina, varias poblaciones de la región se acercan al nivel de reemplazo, es decir a una tasa global de poco más de 2 hijos por mujer, que alcanza solo para reemplazar una generación por otra de igual tamaño y que en el largo plazo resulta en crecimiento demográfico nulo. La fecundidad de reemplazo tradicionalmente se ha considerado como el final de la transición de la fecundidad. Hasta hace poco tiempo casi todas las proyecciones de población asumían que el descenso de la fecundidad finalizaría al alcanzarse este nivel. La experiencia de países más desarrollados y del antiguo bloque soviético ha mostrado, empero, que nada impide que la fecundidad continúe disminuyendo hasta muy por debajo del reemplazo, con el consiguiente espectro de una crisis demográfica por la disminución y el envejecimiento de la población. ¿Está en América Latina la fecundidad por debajo del reemplazo a la vuelta de la esquina? Esta pregunta específica de la región invoca la cuestión más general de los determinantes de la fecundidad posttransicional, un tópico de amplio debate entre los demógrafos europeos. La información de las encuestas demográficas en 15 áreas metropolitanas de América Latina documenta la rápida caída de la fecundidad ocurrida en todas ellas y apunta a que la fecundidad de reemplazo ya es una realidad en la región. En 12 de las 15 ciudades, las jóvenes con alrededor de 20 años de edad en el 2000 tendrán una TGF de alrededor de dos hijos. En algunas de ellas (Monterrey, Rio, Medellín y el DF) la fecundidad caerá incluso varias décimas por debajo del reemplazo a tasas globales de entre 1,6 y 1,8.
Generational Transfers and Population Aging in Latin America
(Population and Development review 37 (Supplement), 2011) Rosero Bixby, Luis
Population aging, a direct consequence of the demographic transition, is often portrayed in negative, even dire terms. This chapter examines some of the probable effects of population aging in Latin America within the framework of the National Transfer Accounts (NTA ) project (NTA 2010).1 The starting point is the NTA estimates of the life-cycle deficit and intergenerational transfers in five countries: Brazil, Chile, Costa Rica, Mexico, and Uruguay. This information is then combined with long-term demographic trends, primarily in age composition, to estimate expected effects on the economy. These effects, also known as “demographic dividends” (e.g., Mason and Lee 2007), are both positive and negative, meaning that population aging in the region involves not only challenges and constraints but also opportunities for development and gains in standards of living. In economic terms, the human life cycle typically includes long initial and final periods of dependency in which production, if any, is insufficient to meet consumption, and an intermediate period in which individuals produce more than they consume. The surplus in intermediate ages compensates for the “life-cycle deficit” at early and late ages through public and private transfers across generations, as well as through reallocations within the same generation. This cycle of deficit–surplus–deficit is neatly depicted by the age curves of consumption and production (labor income) in a given society (Lee, Mason, and Miller 2003).
Is Latin America starting to retreat from early and universal childbearing?
(Demographic Research; Volumen 20, Número 9, 2009) Rosero Bixby, Luis; Castro Martín, Teresa; Martín García, Teresa
The 2000 censuses show that the proportion of women below age 30 who are mothers has dropped substantially in most Latin America countries, suggesting that the social imperative of early motherhood, which has long prevailed in the region, is weakening. Surveys conducted in 14 Latin American countries in 2006 also show a strong link between childlessness and higher education across several cohorts. We discuss whether the recent increase in childlessness among young women reflects a shift towards later childbearing, a novel trend in the Latin American context, and also whether it may signal an emerging retreat from universal childbearing in the region.
Nuptiality trends and fertility transition in Latin America
(The Fertility Transition in Latin America. Oxford University Press, 1996) Rosero Bixby, Luis
he purpose of this chapter is to determine the role played by nuptiality changes in the fertility transition in Latin America. As other contributions to this book show, most Latin American countries have reduced substantially their fertility since 1960 approximately. In this chapter we examine the extent to which changes in marriage patterns explain this generalized fertility decline. Fertility transition in Europe occurred without the help o f nuptiality changes, or even in spite of a marriage boom (Hajnal 1956; Watkins 1981; Dyson and Murphy 1985). Late age at marriage and widespread spinsterhood had brought about moderate levels of fertility long before the European transition, in what Coale has called a ‘first’ transition (Coale 1973). In developing countries, in contrast, prevalent patterns of almost universal and precocious marriage have suggested that important fertility decline can occur because of nuptiality changes. Several studies have, indeed, showed meaningful effects of marriage changes, particularly in East Asia. For example, Mauldin and Berelson (1978) found that delayed marriages account for 35-40 per cent of birth rate reductions in ten developing countries with major fertility declines. Cho and Retherford (1974) also estimated an important contribution of nuptiality to birth rate declines in seven Asian populations between 1960 and 1970, which range from 23 per cent in Taiwan to 102 per cent in the Philippines. The literature on nuptiality and its effect on fertility in developing countries has been dominated by observations from Asia and tropical Africa, however. Nuptiality and family patterns in Latin America are intermediate between those in Western Europe and those in Asia or Africa (Merrick 1986; De Vos 1987). The female mean age at marriage is 22 years and the proportion of never married women by age 50 is 13 per cent in Latin America as a whole, figures that contrast with, for example, 19 years and 2 per cent respectively in South Asia (United Nations 1988: table 5). Regional trends in Latin American nuptiality and their impact on fertility have not been well documented.

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