Predicting survival from telomere length versus conventional predictors: a multinational population-based cohort study

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dc.contributor.authorGlei, Dana
dc.contributor.authorRisques, Rosa Ana
dc.contributor.authorRehkopf, David H.
dc.contributor.authorDow, William H.
dc.contributor.authorRosero-Bixby, Luis
dc.contributor.authorWeinstein, Maxine
dc.contributor.authorGoldman, Noreen
dc.date.accessioned2021-11-19T16:13:27Z
dc.date.accessioned2022-03-18T01:52:27Z
dc.date.available2021-11-19T16:13:27Z
dc.date.available2022-03-18T01:52:27Z
dc.date.issued2016
dc.description.abstractTelomere length has generated substantial interest as a potential predictor of aging- related diseases and mortality. Some studies have reprted significant associations, but few have tested its ability to discriminate between decedents and survivors compared with a broad range of well-established predictors that include both biomarkers and commonly collected self-reprted data. Our aim here was to quantify the prognostic value of leuko- cyte telomere length relative to age, sex, and 19 other variables for predicting five-year mortality among older persons in three countries. We used data from nationally represen- tative surveys in Costa Rica (N = 923, aged 61+), Taiwan (N = 976, aged 54+), and the U. S. (N = 2672, aged 60+). Our study used a prospective cohort design with all-cause mor- tality during five years post-exam as the outcome. We fit Cox hazards models separately by country, and assessed the discriminatory ability of each predictor. Age was, by far, the single best predictor of all-cause mortality, whereas leukocyte telomere length was only somewhat better than random chance in terms of discriminating between decedents and survivors. After adjustment for age and sex, telomere length ranked between 15th and 17th (out of 20), and its incremental contribution was small; nine self-reprted variables (e.g., mobility, global self-assessed health status, limitations with activities of daily living, smoking status), a cognitive assessment, and three biological markers (C-reactive protein, serum creatinine, and glycosylated hemoglobin) were more powerful predictors of mortality in all three countries. Results were similar for cause-specific models (i.e., mortality from cardiovascular disease, cancer, and all other causes combined). Leukocyte telomere length had a statistically discernible, but weak, association with mortality, but it did not predict survival as well as age or many other self-reprted variables. Although telomere length may eventually help scientists understand aging, more powerful and more easily obtained tools are available for predicting survival.es_CR
dc.description.pages1-18es_CR
dc.description.urihttps://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0152486
dc.identifier.issn1932-6203
dc.identifier.urihttps://repositorio.sibdi.ucr.ac.cr/handle/123456789/16882
dc.language.isoenes_CR
dc.publisherPLOS One; Volumen 11, Número 4es_CR
dc.subjectESTUDIOS DE CASOSes_CR
dc.subjectCOHORTEes_CR
dc.subjectTELOMEREes_CR
dc.subjectEDAD MEDIANAes_CR
dc.titlePredicting survival from telomere length versus conventional predictors: a multinational population-based cohort studyes_CR
dc.typeArticlees_CR

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Luis Rosero-Bixby

SIBDI, UCR - San José, Costa Rica.

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