Rosero Bixby, LuisSantamaría Ulloa, Carolina2021-11-162022-03-172021-11-162022-03-1720192393-6401https://repositorio.sibdi.ucr.ac.cr/handle/123456789/16783El objetivo de esta investigación es determinar la existencia y magnitud de ciclos de variación estacional en la mortalidad de Costa Rica de 1970 a 2016. Metodológicamente, el estudio se basa en microdatos de 630,000 defunciones entre esos años. La naturaleza cíclica de la variación estacional se modela con regresión sinusoide y parámetros estimados con regresión de Poisson. Los resultados muestran que hay variación estacional significativa con un máximo en enero y un mínimo en mayo. La mortalidad tiende a ser 7 % mayor en su ápex que en su nadir. Este patrón está determinado por accidentes, especialmente de transporte, alcoholismo, enfermedades cardio- y cerebrovasculares, e infecciones respiratorias. La mortalidad por diarreas presenta un patrón diferente de estacionalidad. En conclusión, la mayor mortalidad de enero estaría asociada con la temperatura menor, ausencia de pluviosidad, menor luz solar y comportamiento durante días festivos. Algunos picos de mortalidad podrían deberse a fluctuaciones en la calidad de los servicios de salud y de atención de emergencias. Abstract The objective of this study is to determine the existence and magnitude of cycles of seasonal variation in Costa Rican mortality, 1970-2016. As methods, it uses the microdata of 630 000 deaths between 1970 and 2016. The cyclic character of seasonality is modeled using sinusoid regression with parameters estimated with Poisson regression. The results show that there is significant seasonality with a peak of deaths in January and a valley in May. Deaths are 7 % higher in the apex than in the nadir. This pattern comes from —mostly road— accidents, alcoholism, brain and cardiovascular diseases and respiratory infections. Seasonality in diarrheal mortality follows a different pattern. As a conclusion, the high mortality in January might be associated to lower temperatures, absence of rainfall, less hours of sunshine, as well as behavior during holidays. Some peaks of mortality may occur because of fluctuations in the quality of health care and emergency care services.The objective of this study is to determine the existence and magnitude of cycles of seasonal variation in Costa Rican mortality, 1970-2016. As methods, it uses the microdata of 630 000 deaths between 1970 and 2016. The cyclic character of seasonality is modeled using sinusoid regression with parameters estimated with Poisson regression. The results show that there is significant seasonality with a peak of deaths in January and a valley in May. Deaths are 7 % higher in the apex than in the nadir. This pattern comes from —mostly road— accidents, alcoholism, brain and cardiovascular diseases and respiratory infections. Seasonality in diarrheal mortality follows a different pattern. As a conclusion, the high mortality in January might be associated to lower temperatures, absence of rainfall, less hours of sunshine, as well as behavior during holidays. Some peaks of mortality may occur because of fluctuations in the quality of health care and emergency care services.spaMORTALIDADCAUSAS DE MUERTEVARIACION ESTACIONALCOSTA RICAArticle